Spain can secure first place without taking unnecessary risks, while Uruguay have reached the point where caution may be more dangerous than defeat. Two draws have left Marcelo Bielsa’s team chasing the result they failed to produce against the weaker sides in Group H.
On June 27 at 05:30 IST, “Uruguay” will face “Spain” at “Guadalajara Stadium”. The match is played on the evening of June 26 in Mexico, but begins after midnight according to Indian time. Spain lead Group H with four points, while Uruguay and Cape Verde have two points each.
The tournament situation shapes the tactical picture. A victory guarantees Spain first place, and a draw should also take them into the Round of 32. Uruguay cannot depend on another controlled stalemate. Their safest route is to beat the European champions, which means Bielsa may eventually have to release more players forward than he did in the opening matches.
Teams Current Form
“Uruguay” form
Uruguay have not won any of their last five matches. Four of those games ended in draws, including both World Cup fixtures. The results against “Saudi Arabia” and “Cape Verde” were especially damaging because Uruguay entered both matches as the stronger side but failed to protect themselves from avoidable defensive mistakes.
The attack has produced moments rather than sustained control. Maximiliano Araújo has scored in both group matches, and Agustín Canobbio gave the team a temporary lead against Cape Verde. However, the structure around the penalty area remains inconsistent. Darwin Núñez was removed from the starting lineup for the second game, while Federico Viñas was used as the central forward.
Uruguay’s greatest strength is still the midfield. Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur and Manuel Ugarte can compete physically with Spain and prevent the match from becoming one-sided. The problem is what happens after possession is recovered. Spain press immediately, so Uruguay need cleaner first passes and more support around the striker.
“Spain” form
Spain responded strongly to the goalless draw with “Cape Verde”. Luis de la Fuente increased the tempo and verticality against “Saudi Arabia”, and the match was effectively decided inside the opening half hour. Lamine Yamal scored, while Mikel Oyarzabal added two goals and an assist.
The return of Yamal to the starting lineup changed the shape of the attack. Spain gained a player capable of carrying the ball past the first defender instead of circulating possession only in front of a compact block. Pedri and Dani Olmo also found more space because Saudi Arabia had to shift additional defenders toward Yamal’s flank.
Spain remain vulnerable to physical pressure if Uruguay can make the game fragmented. Even so, their midfield offers more control, and the current attacking options are more varied. Rodri can dictate the rhythm from deep, Pedri can progress through tight areas, and Oyarzabal has shown that he can finish chances created from both open play and set pieces.
Probable Lineups
“Uruguay” lineup
4-2-3-1: Fernando Muslera, Guillermo Varela, Sebastián Cáceres, Mathías Olivera, Juan Manuel Sanabria, Manuel Ugarte, Rodrigo Bentancur, Federico Valverde, Agustín Canobbio, Maximiliano Araújo, Federico Viñas.
“Spain” lineup
4-3-3: Unai Simón, Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella, Rodri, Pedri, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Álex Baena.
Who will not play
For “Uruguay”, Ronald Araújo and Giorgian de Arrascaeta are unavailable for the decisive group match. Araújo suffered a muscle injury during the tournament preparation, while De Arrascaeta has also been unable to recover in time.
For “Spain”, Víctor Muñoz is unavailable because of a muscle problem. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have recently returned from injuries and their minutes continue to be managed. Mikel Oyarzabal reported general soreness after the Saudi Arabia match but stated that he is ready to play.
The most accurate information on the lineups will be available immediately before the meeting.
Statistics for the Last 5 Matches
“Uruguay”
21.06.26, FIFA World Cup: Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde
15.06.26, FIFA World Cup: Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay
31.03.26, Friendly: Algeria 0-0 Uruguay
27.03.26, Friendly: England 1-1 Uruguay
18.11.25, Friendly: USA 5-1 Uruguay
In the last five official and friendly matches, “Uruguay” have 4 draws and 1 defeat. The team scored 5 goals and conceded 9.
“Spain”
21.06.26, FIFA World Cup: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia
15.06.26, FIFA World Cup: Spain 0-0 Cape Verde
08.06.26, Friendly: Peru 1-3 Spain
04.06.26, Friendly: Spain 1-1 Iraq
31.03.26, Friendly: Spain 0-0 Egypt
In the last five official and friendly matches, “Spain” have 2 wins and 3 draws. The team scored 8 goals and conceded 2.
Head-to-Head Statistics
16.06.13, FIFA Confederations Cup: Spain 2-1 Uruguay
06.02.13, Friendly: Spain 3-1 Uruguay
17.08.05, Friendly: Spain 2-0 Uruguay
13.06.90, FIFA World Cup: Uruguay 0-0 Spain
09.07.50, FIFA World Cup: Uruguay 2-2 Spain
In the last five official and friendly head-to-head matches, “Spain” have 3 wins, while 2 matches ended in draws. Uruguay have never defeated Spain at senior international level.
Main prediction for the “Uruguay” - “Spain” game
Uruguay – Spain: forecast on event 26 June 2026
Spain Win
Uruguay’s urgency may make them more dangerous than they were in the first two rounds, but it also creates the type of space Spain can exploit. Bielsa’s team have conceded four goals against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, with several coming from organisational mistakes. Spain are moving the ball more quickly after their poor opener, and Yamal’s return gives them a direct route through the Uruguayan defensive block. You can place a bet on this option on the Batery official website.
For
Additional predictions
Uruguay – Spain: forecast on event 26 June 2026
Total under 3.5 goals
Uruguay must attack, but their first objective will still be to prevent Spain from controlling the match too early. Spain can qualify with a draw and have conceded only two goals across their last five games. The most likely scorelines are 0-1, 0-2 or 1-2 in favour of the European champions.
