Real Madrid return to the Bernabéu after losing the Madrid derby, while Villarreal arrive with consecutive league victories. The hosts have dominated this matchup recently, but their defensive lineup requires a forced change because of suspension.
On October 11 at 00:30 IST, “Real Madrid” will face “Villarreal” at “Santiago Bernabéu”. The fixture is officially played on October 10 at 21:00 local Spanish time, with the calendar date changing after conversion to Indian time.
Real Madrid are fourth in LaLiga with 15 points from seven matches. Villarreal have eight points from seven rounds and sit ninth.
The recent form is mixed for both sides. Real Madrid have three wins and two defeats across their last five official matches. Villarreal have won their last two league games after losing the previous three matches in all competitions.
Teams Current Form
“Real Madrid” form
Real Madrid have won five of their opening seven LaLiga matches, but their perfect early momentum has been interrupted by defeats against “Real Betis” and “Atlético Madrid”.
The most recent official match ended in a 2-1 derby defeat at the Metropolitano. Real played much of the second half with ten men after Dean Huijsen was sent off.
Before that setback, Real had beaten “Inter”, “Rayo Vallecano” and “Elche” in consecutive matches. Their attack remains productive, with ten goals scored across the latest five official games.
The main question before Villarreal is defensive availability, and the situation is severe. Dean Huijsen is suspended after the derby red card, Éder Militão and Raúl Asencio are injured, Ferland Mendy remains out, and Ibrahima Konaté is in doubt after a knee injury sustained on international duty with France. Antonio Rüdiger is the only senior centre-back whose availability is not in question.
Federico Valverde is also a major doubt after spraining his ankle in the derby and has not been training with the group this week. Kylian Mbappé hyperextended his left knee with France but has returned to training at Valdebebas and is expected to be available.
“Villarreal” form
Villarreal arrive in Madrid after consecutive LaLiga victories against “Málaga” and “Levante”.
Those results ended a run of three straight defeats against “Deportivo La Coruña”, “Borussia Dortmund” and “Real Betis”.
The attack has remained productive even during the difficult results. Villarreal have scored 11 goals across their last five official matches and have found the net at least once in every game in that sequence.
Their defensive record is less convincing. Ten goals have been conceded over the same five matches, and every one of those games produced at least three total goals.
Villarreal therefore have enough attacking quality to cause problems at the Bernabéu, but they have not shown the defensive stability required to make this away fixture comfortable.
Dean Huijsen started that derby but was sent off and is suspended. Antonio Rüdiger is the projected replacement: he came from the bench in that match and scored Real Madrid’s late goal, and with Militão, Asencio and Mendy injured he is the only fully available senior centre-back.
Federico Valverde also started the derby but sprained his ankle in that match and has not trained with the group this week. Bernardo Silva is the most likely replacement alongside Tchouaméni, having assisted Rüdiger’s goal after coming off the bench at the Metropolitano.
Ibrahima Konaté is retained in the base XI, but his participation is not certain. Reports differ on whether he has recovered from the knee injury sustained with France, and his status should be confirmed before kickoff.
“Villarreal” lineup
4-2-3-1: Péter Gulácsi, Alex Freeman, Pau Navarro, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona, Pape Gueye, Nathan Saliba, Ilias Akhomach, Alberto Moleiro, Tajon Buchanan, Ayoze Pérez.
No player from that starting eleven has been confirmed unavailable for the Real Madrid match at the time of this forecast, so the base XI remains unchanged.
Who will not play
For “Real Madrid”, Dean Huijsen is unavailable through suspension after his red card in the derby against Atlético Madrid.
Éder Militão, Raúl Asencio and Ferland Mendy are all out through injury, and Rodrygo remains in long-term recovery after a cruciate ligament injury.
Ibrahima Konaté is in doubt after a knee injury sustained on international duty with France, with sources differing on whether he will be cleared for this fixture.
Federico Valverde sprained his ankle in the derby, has not trained with the group this week and is a major doubt.
Kylian Mbappé hyperextended his left knee with France but has returned to training and is expected to be available. Carlos Espí is the likely alternative if he does not recover in time.
For “Villarreal”, no player from the starting XI used against Levante has been officially confirmed unavailable at the time of this forecast.
Santi Comesaña and Juan Foyth have had recent physical concerns, but neither was part of the latest starting XI used as the lineup base.
The most accurate information on the final starting lineups will be available immediately before the meeting.
Statistics for the Last 5 Matches
“Real Madrid”
20.09.26, LaLiga: Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
15.09.26, LaLiga: Elche 2-3 Real Madrid
12.09.26, LaLiga: Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
08.09.26, UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid 2-1 Inter
04.09.26, LaLiga: Real Betis 1-0 Real Madrid
In the last five official matches, “Real Madrid” have 3 wins and 2 defeats. The team scored 10 goals and conceded 7.
“Villarreal”
20.09.26, LaLiga: Villarreal 3-1 Levante
17.09.26, LaLiga: Málaga 1-3 Villarreal
14.09.26, LaLiga: Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis
08.09.26, UEFA Champions League: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal
05.09.26, LaLiga: Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruña
In the last five official matches, “Villarreal” have 2 wins and 3 defeats. The team scored 11 goals and conceded 10.
Head-to-Head Statistics
24.01.26, LaLiga: Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid
04.10.25, LaLiga: Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal
15.03.25, LaLiga: Villarreal 1-2 Real Madrid
05.10.24, LaLiga: Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal
19.05.24, LaLiga: Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid
In the last five official head-to-head matches, “Real Madrid” have 4 wins and 1 draw. Villarreal have no wins in this sequence. Real Madrid scored 13 goals and Villarreal scored 6.
Main prediction for the “Real Madrid” - “Villarreal” game
Real Madrid – Villarreal: forecast on event 10 October 2026
Real Madrid Win
Real Madrid have won four of the last five official meetings with Villarreal and have not lost any of those five matches.
The hosts also have a considerably stronger league position, with 15 points from seven rounds compared with Villarreal’s eight.
Villarreal’s current attack deserves respect, especially after scoring three goals in each of their last two league games. Their defensive record is the weakness: ten goals conceded across the latest five official matches leaves very little margin for error at the Bernabéu.
The caveat is the state of Real Madrid’s defence. Huijsen is suspended, Militão, Asencio and Mendy are injured, and Konaté is in doubt, leaving Rüdiger as the only guaranteed senior centre-back. That is a genuine argument for Villarreal creating chances, but the attacking structure of the hosts, their head-to-head record and the gap in the table still make the home victory the more convincing match-result direction.
For
Additional predictions
Real Madrid – Villarreal: forecast on event 10 October 2026
Over 2.5 total goals
Four of Real Madrid’s last five official matches produced at least three goals.
All five of Villarreal’s latest official matches went over the 2.5-goal line, with a combined 21 goals scored across those games.
Three of the last five head-to-head meetings also produced at least three goals. Villarreal’s willingness to attack should create opportunities at both ends, while Real have enough attacking quality to punish an opponent that has been conceding regularly.
All three of Real Madrid’s home league matches this season have produced at least four goals, and so have five of Villarreal’s seven games in all competitions.
